MORE THAN HOT AIR
Are surface temperatures being overlooked
in the battle to tackle global warming?
Charlie Clutterbuck thinks so.
Coal, oil and gas, the exploitation of
which took mankind out of the Dark Ages, took millions of years to mature. But unless
we create some way of swiftly controlling their poisonous side effect’s they might
just finish us off instantaneously. Which is why Unite is contributing towards the
campaign for Net Zero emissions by backing plans to increase carbon, capture
and storage (CCS) , in which Britain led the world until Thatcher took her axe to
tests at Grimethorpe Colliery just prior to the 1984-85 Miners’ Strike.
But might the rural sector be able to help out in
tackling global warming? Unite’s own soil scientist Charlie Clutterbuck, who as
Landworker readers will know constantly explores possible solutions to what are
regarded as intractable problems, believes so.
“The most reliable global warming data since 1880
comes from NASA. In the next 100 years this reveals there were as many cold
years as warm. Global temperature rose 0.3C,” explains Charlie.
“Yet from 1980 - 2020 it warmed 1.6C. That is the
equivalent of 13x faster than the previous century. Every decade since the
1980s has been warmer than the previous one.
“The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) compares the warming effect of the main
human-produced greenhouse gases to conditions in 1990. In 2022, the AGGI
was 1.49, a 49% increase in 32 years when over the same period temperatures
rose extra-ordinarily.”
Seeking
explanations, Charlie is convinced of the need “to examine surface heat exchange where the sun’s rays hit the
earth.” This complex equation (based on 2 aspects - albedo capacity and
conductivity) happens before any GHG involvement.
Statistics reveal that solar radiation received from
the sun totals 342 watts per cubic metre with 339 watts going back out. The remaining 3 watts - 1% of the total - is
energy. Its absorption by the earth warms it up. Altering that could be key.
Albedo is a key parameter widely used in
land surface energy balance
studies, mid-to-long-term weather prediction, and global climate change
investigation.
“Open ocean water has a moderate albedo of around 0.06, so absorbing a lot of
sunlight, thus contributing to ocean warming, The sea though has high capacity
to absorb heat without temperature increasing, and then conductivity to move it around. Again, we see it heating lots faster
since 1980. Much more than GHGs alone could cause,” states Charlie who
first appeared in Landworker magazine over 50 years ago and who played a key
role in the setting up of the Hazards Campaign and Magazine that has saved the
lives of many thousands.
On land the albedo is much more variable depending on
the surface. Snow has high albedo (reflectivity) but when it melts the brown
earth has low albedo, thus absorbing more heat. Forest and grassland are cooler
than ploughed soil because of a mixture of albedo and capacity. It means that
on hot days it’s pleasurable to lie on the grass but not on the soil,
Currently, ‘global’ temperatures measure just air
temperatures and although water transfers 90% of our heat we do not even
measure its effects. Land too is not measured and so there exists few worldwide
comparisons of variation of warmth over different land practices.
“If we could alter that it could make a massive analytical
difference,” states Charlie. “Because I feel it can help establish that soil
surface temperature rises have played a major role in the rapid global heat increase.”
At Davos in 2023, delegates at the World Economic
Forum were saying ‘soil is the solution’ because of its carbon content.
“But this shows how ‘reductionist’ carbon counting is.
The soil is a living entity not lumps of carbon. Soil holds moisture that keeps
the planet cool, thus pasture is better than arable land,” argues Charlie who
is convinced that the soil in our cities that is now concreted and tarmacked
over had previously have held temperatures down by holding on to water. “Increasing numbers and the size of cities
must have had an impact on global warming.”
Meanwhile, the ‘green revolution’ expanded
dramatically in Asia & Africa after 1980 to produce grain and vegetables in
monocultures. “That warms up land considerably more than grazed grassland.
Previous civilisations – for example, Greek, Roman & Mayan - have been eroded due to similar agricultural
practices.”
Trees are even cooler than grazed grassland and so “the
continuing chopping down of many forests increases surface temperatures by
releasing moisture.”
Baking hot
Furthermore, an area half the size of Europe is
degraded annually from ‘dryland ‘to desert.
“The impact of desertification on global warming must
be enormous, with no trees, grass, clouds, water holding, life support and
surface temperatures bouncing around. Re-growing the trees, grass and improved
soil would help cool the planet and improve rural economies.”
In turn this should reduce emigration by millions of desperate
people seeking to survive an ever-heating world.
Soilution?
“Some of the £1.5 trillion being earmarked towards
‘net zero’, where GHG emissions are, at around £40 a ton of carbon, balanced by
increasing carbon absorption somewhere else, should be invested in paying
attention to the earths’ surface temperatures.”
Rural road to ruin
Nationally, Charlie also fears that net zero plans encourage
less food production and damages rural employment opportunities.
“Like
other organisations, The National Trust have pledged to become net zero by
2030. In addition to increasing tree planting and restoring peat bogs they are now
getting rid of sheep from their farms around Malham Tarn so they can ‘rewild’ the land. Such policies will increase food imports, using
other peoples' land, water and labour and increasing their soil temperatures. These
new measures also take time and mean fewer jobs. Land for food production
should be prioritised.”
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